Bitcoin Power Law Model Signals a “Coiled Spring” Ready to Break Out

Analyst Adam Livingston argues that Bitcoin’s long-term power-law model positions the asset like a “coiled spring” ready to surge upward. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s fair value stands near $142,000, with a potential upper band of $512,000 and a lower range just above $50,000.

Livingston notes that Bitcoin has been tracking its fair-value line since March 2024, a pattern that historically precedes strong upward movements. Each time Bitcoin reached this valuation zone in the past, it either rallied sharply or briefly dipped before launching to new highs.

Despite major volatility and liquidations this year — including a plunge below $100,000 — miners and long-term holders have continued to accumulate rather than sell, signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term strength. Institutional ETP inflows have resumed, and miner reserves have grown even as production costs doubled after the halving.

Meanwhile, institutional forecasts have become more conservative:

• Galaxy Digital cut its year-end 2025 forecast from $180,000 to $120,000.

• Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest lowered its long-term estimate by roughly $300,000, citing the rise of stablecoins as digital stores of value in emerging markets — a role Bitcoin once filled.

The market now oscillates between fear and confidence, but accumulation remains strong. With miners consolidating, regulatory clarity improving, and macro conditions supportive, Livingston suggests that the same “coiled spring” pattern seen before previous Bitcoin rallies may be forming once again — setting the stage for another potential breakout.