Fed Likely to Hold Rates on July 19 as Markets Price in Stability

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC meeting on July 19, 2025, where markets are overwhelmingly predicting that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%. According to veteran trader Matthew Dixon, there’s a 96.9% chance of no hike and only a 3.1% probability of a 25 bps cut, signaling strong expectations of policy stability.

At the June 18 meeting, while Fed projections still hinted at two possible rate cuts before year-end, a growing number of officials favored no additional cuts in 2025, due to lingering inflation concerns. Despite headline inflation easing from 3% in January to 2.3% in April, it crept back up to 2.7% in June, keeping the Fed cautious.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has stabilized around 4.1%, and the Fed seems in no rush to act. However, political pressure is intensifying, with President Trump demanding deeper cuts to boost the economy before the 2026 election. Trump is pushing for rates as low as 1%, criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has insisted that decisions will remain data-driven and independent.

Crypto markets are watching closely. Dixon believes steady rates are mildly bullish for Bitcoin and altcoins, as risk-on assets tend to thrive when monetary policy is stable. Unless there's a shock from inflation or labor data, no big changes are expected, and Powell’s team appears poised to hold the line.