Bitcoin Could See ‘Monopoly-ish’ Gains, Says Diem Co-Creator Catalini

Bitcoin may become the backbone of a money-as-software financial system, according to Christian Catalini, co-creator of Diem and CSO at Lightspark. In an article for Harvard Business Review, Catalini describes Bitcoin as “the meter on the pipe”, with its network serving as neutral settlement infrastructure.

If the bullish scenario unfolds, BTC could deliver ‘silly, monopoly-ish’ margins, driven by quiet accumulation from sovereign wealth funds and institutions. “It’s a many-multiples story,” says Catalini, referencing how financial toll roads tend to produce extraordinary profit margins.

However, the bear case involves a superior protocol gaining traction or Bitcoin’s rulebook changing mid-game, which could reverse network effects and make BTC obsolete.

For corporate leaders, Catalini advises pragmatism over ideology: “You don’t have to pick a side; you have to pick an allocation.” If Bitcoin becomes the monetary OS, having exposure matters. If not, your firm remains solvent—“which is the job.”

Importantly, Catalini believes Bitcoin’s value could grow beyond a store of value, evolving into a medium of exchange and infrastructure layer for financial services. This could result in winner-takes-most outcomes, much like the Visa/Mastercard duopoly.

Though BTC doesn’t offer dividends or control, holders can benefit from price appreciation as adoption grows. The bottom line: Bitcoin might not just be neutral money—but the neutral rails of the digital economy.