Bitcoin Surges but Death Cross Looms on the Horizon

Bitcoin (BTC) bounced back above $116,500 today, posting over 3% daily gains after falling to $112,000 earlier this week. The rebound was sparked by Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinting that rate cuts may come if the job market weakens. Now, markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a cut this year. While the macro boost ignited momentum, technical indicators show a dark cloud: a looming death cross on the charts.

On the daily chart, BTC reclaimed both the 23-day and 50-day moving averages with a single strong green candle. However, these moving averages are now converging in a way that could signal a bearish trend if the price stalls. The 200-day moving average sits around $100,600, and if the shorter averages cross below it, it would form a classic death cross — often a precursor to deeper corrections after euphoric rallies.

Nearly $240 million in short positions were liquidated within one hour as BTC soared, while futures volume spiked 55% to $107 billion. Options volume also doubled past $8.4 billion, but open interest dipped 3%, indicating that many traders are locking in gains rather than seeking new risk. Binance and OKX ratios above 1.4 suggest the market is tilted too heavily toward long positions, increasing the risk of a reversal.

Ethereum surged 8% to near $4,600, boosting the risk-on sentiment. Still, the technical setup around Bitcoin’s moving averages remains the clearest warning sign — a potential death cross that could flip this bullish breakout into a fast hangover.